Conventions Up the Wazoo (2008)

Originally published as a Facebook note September 3, 2008.

Source: webstockreview.net. Used without permission.

A Coe colleague e-mailed me requesting political insights. (We haven't talked in awhile, which is why he probably thought I had any to share.) This is what I came up with:

Mark:

Good to hear from you!

I'd like to discuss your questions without answering them. There are certainly some significant differences between the parties on economic and social issues, as well as what to do about the war. The American public is all over the place on these issues; probably the biggest group is mostly conservative on economic issues (which would incline them to the Republican party) and liberal on social issues (which would incline them to the Democrats).

Given that, I think what the candidates try to do is shift the conversation to subjects that favor them. The Republicans seem to me to be trying to rerun the election of 2002 (when the threat of terrorism was foremost in people's minds) or even 2000 (when government reform was big); the Democrats would like to rerun the election of 2006 (when public disaffection with the Iraq war helped them a lot).

In public opinion polls (see www.pollingreport.com) the biggest issue by far for people is the economy and jobs, and the numbers go up if you throw in economically-related issues like gas prices and health care. It's not clear how this cuts politically, though, other than it has helped make Bush extremely unpopular. McCain wants to distance himself from Bush without losing traditional Republican strong points like tax cuts and oil drilling; Obama would like to benefit from Bush's failures but is exposed on those issues.

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